Winter is indeed coming and the next few months do not look good, especially for the Western world. COVID19 cases are sky rocketing and the orange one still refuses to concede to Biden.
The obvious signs are everywhere for anyone to see. Cases are hitting new highs in most places as the weather gets colder. Thanksgiving in America is this Thursday and most still want to travel to meet up with family after a dreadful 2020 of being locked up, even after Fauci advises them not to travel. The UK is 3 weeks into its 1-month lockdown which looks likely to be extended. Christmas is a month away and everyone wants to go home for the winter holidays. Mass travelling is a recipe for a new virus wave.
Over in Asia, the community is always placed before the self/individual. Putting in tough measures to protect the whole village is seen as a given and a greater good. For the Western world, it is individual rights and self before the community. My rights as an individual come first, over and above everything else. A simple thing like wearing a mask becomes a hot political football. The virus is colourblind. It attacks all the weak points of the system. The cracks in each country are exposed for all to see as the weather is going to get colder while more people start to ignore the tougher measures that are required.
While I was in the UK in Sep/Oct, I could see the British crying murder when the pubs are forced to close earlier. People still want to travel overseas for holidays in the midst of a pandemic. Zero contact tracing and limited testings are available. Self-quarantine was unregulated and entrusted on the individual to comply. Even the senior ministers didn’t walk the talk and the population distrust all new measures put up to slow the virus spread. The spirit is willing but the body is weak.
As an example, my friend who worked in HK just returned back to S’pore. He has not seen his family since Jan. Unlike my 2 weeks quarantine in a designated hotel, he was only required to do a 7 days SHN (Stay Home Notice) period at his own home. Immediately upon his arrival to his home, contact tracers personally visited him to ensure that he is at the place he is supposed to be. On top of that, they installed a transponder in his room and made him wear a bracelet which cannot be removed.
If he ever moves too far away from the transponder, a warning alert will be sent to the contact tracers. Over this 7 days period, he will receive random calls to verify where he is and to record/report his temperature daily. A COVID19 swap test will be done for him near the end date to confirm that he is negative before he is released from SHN. Can you imagine the above being done in the EU or America? The citizens will be up in arms protesting about human rights immediately!!!
So you can now see my scepticism and pessimism for the next few months. All the warning signs are turning red and leadership to direct tough measures are nowhere to be found. Biden is unable to transition as President-elect while the orange moron is putting obstacles to make every step difficult, even as Georgia just officially announced that Biden had won there. Cases in the US is going to be more than 200k/day very soon and daily deaths had crossed 2k. Europe is no better as the cold winter starts to set in.
All hopes pinning on the positive vaccine news last week are too premature. There is still a lag time of a few weeks till they are available but there will be a limited supply initially. There are about 30+ vaccines in the pipeline in various phases and another 100+ in development stages. Like the Tamiflu treatment for H1N1, the cure might take a while to implement. Meanwhile, the world has to buckle down for the change in season as the weather becomes more conducive for the virus. More people will stay indoors and tempted to have bigger family gatherings.
Family get-togethers for Thanksgiving and Christmas will just make the virus spread further. I cannot foresee that the Western world would totally comply with masking up, social distancing and avoiding big gatherings in the next few months, after spending months in lockdown mode. They have busted their chances over the last 8 months to tame this beast and now draconian rules need to be in force asap.
The likelihood of the developed world getting their act together is slipping away day by day. We can literally see a shit show developing right before our eyes into early 2021. We are asking my older son to return from the UK for his Christmas holiday break after term 1 ends. S’pore seems to be a safer place than the countries who will be experiencing winter soon.
As Game Of Thrones tag line says : “Winter is coming”….
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