At the end of the last year, there were many 2023 forecasts from banks that we have already read since Nov where economists try to predict the likely trends for the new year.
Likewise, I will try to do the same and position myself for the sake of my terrible 2022 portfolio. The stock market indices in 2022 didn’t drop much – it ended the year near where it started. But volatility was huge and a Jun/Sep collapse killed a lot of portfolios as the Fed went into an aggressive rate hike mode.
That also the popping of various asset bubbles that had been building since the 2008 GFC of low/zero/negative rates. Meme stock chasing was the first to collapse, followed by cryptocurrencies, SPACs and all assets that can only survive in a rising market propped up with cheap borrowing costs that disappeared when the Fed began to hike aggressively.
From a base of less than 1%, rates went up to the 5-7% levels in a matter of months. Highly leveraged position holders were caught with their pants down. As Warren Buffet once said, only when the tide goes down will we see who was swimming naked. It was an Annus Horribilis roller coaster 12 months ride from the get-go since Dec 2021.
By Nov 2022, everyone was so confused that even the bank economists that were putting out their 2023 outlook papers had the biggest divergence of consensus views in a very long time. The majority predicted a recession but the degree and severity of the recession were highly debatable. Inflation was still a concern and the Fed continued its strong language of wanting to defeat the inflation monster to stay ahead of the curve.
The Fed seems intent to do more 75 bps hikes into 2023 as the Ukraine war saw no ending in sight and a fear of a cold winter may cause the anti-Russia gas/oil embargo to crumble. Everyone remained pessimistic on the back of expected negative sentiments.
Into Dec, we had a surprisingly warmer winter after an initial short temperature dip in the middle of the month. European countries had also managed to stock up on gas reserves. Ukraine declared victories in capturing back its lands and Putin’s threat of the nuclear option did not happen.
Then the wild card happened. China decided to drop its zero Covid policy and allow for a transition back to pre-Covid normalcy by Mar 2023. With its huge economy unshackled, there was a high probability that it may help boost the rest of the world and further unlock stucked supply chains.
Leading inflation indicators started to show a gradual downward trend and the Fed language softened to a less aggressive hike schedule. Markets start to price in lower expectations of 50 to 25 bps hikes instead. Stock markets in Jan opened on a more positive note.
The thinking now is that we may be seeing a mild recession happening by the end of Q2. Any rate reversals or cuts are expected to only happen in 2024. From now till Jun, it is steady as she goes and a slight optimism about regaining the losses from 2022.
While there is caution in case of unexpected news erupting suddenly (eg. a sudden Putin move), markets are likely to slowly creep higher. China, India and Russia are determined to move away from USD reliance to price commodities using the CBDCs that will be developed very soon. The RMB will lead the way and Russia will adopt it to free itself from the US-controlled Swift system that has been used as a threat whenever America wants to arm twist a country to have things its way.
We had many wonderful meet-ups and celebrations for Chinese New Year so far. Starting from reunion dinners before the 1st CNY day on 22 Jan, it feels good to be returning to normal where large group gatherings are now allowed. Everyone was talking about the last time it occurred 2 to 3 years ago, pre-Covid.
The world looks to be a happier place now. The virus variants remain mild even as China opens up. We have had a relatively good start to the year. This was a marked contrast to Jan 2022 when things already seemed to go wrong the month before. No doubt we will naturally be wary after the big rate hikes and the Ukraine war that caught all by surprise and crippled the world economy.
2021 was a year of hope as the vaccine was rolled out to pull us from the abyss. That glimmer of hope was smashed when the world was turned upside down in 2022 as inflation reared its ugly head. In hindsight, this was totally expected as demand dropped off a cliff in 2020 when Covid struck the world. The lockdowns caused supply chains to break down as the demand for commerce became a fraction of 2019 levels. From a much lower base by 2021, a 100+% increase was inevitable as the world recovered, causing an inflation spike. That in turn forced the central banks to act. The by-product of the hikes was the bursting of the asset bubbles that were building up for years since the 2008 GFC.
Easy to talk about this now, that we should have positioned our portfolio accordingly as these megatrends were unfolding. Alas, things could have been better if I had just betted the house on a stronger USD and commodity prices in 2022 while selling the weak asset classes like cryptos and the meme bubble stocks. The weak and highly leveraged positions were the first to collapse when funding costs more than tripled after the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes.
For the rest of 2023, we will not be going back to the good old days as rates will remain at these elevated levels for a while. Frothy tech stocks also may only see their highs again if there are more technological breakthroughs in AI like ChatGPT. I remain committed to trimming the weak stocks in my portfolio and constantly try to assess the big-picture macros in order to get a conviction on trends.
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