Two comments over the last week stood out for me. The first one summarizes the topic this week. It was from one of our ministers who said: “We sleepwalk into conflict”. This perfectly describes the situation now in the 3 conflict zones around the world, namely Ukraine, Taiwan and Myanmar. I will attempt to forecast what is the endgame for each of them in this week’s blog.
The Ukraine war with Russia just entered its 6th month anniversary this week. This protracted war of attrition has caught both sides by surprise. Russia had lost a lot of its soldiers and equipment fighting a nation that simply refused to surrender. Ukraine shows its determination to fight on, thanks to the constant supply of weapons from Europe and America.
While there is a promise by Ukraine not to use the equipment to launch an offensive on Russian soil, it is starting to employ guerilla tactics to test grey lines and push the envelope on what it can and could do.
It tried to fire “stray” missiles into nearby Russian towns but probably deemed it to be too risky to poke the bear and antagonise its overseas supporters. Instead, it then decided to start to attack Crimea now. Logically, this area did belong to Ukraine which Russia forcefully annexed in 2014. So it seems like fair game to them, that they are “trying” to take back what used to belong to them. It seems to be acceptable to the UK and USA as they have even stepped up to provide more sophisticated weapons like drones and strategic missiles to them after the Crimea attacks.
Russia has also seen the depletion of its equipment and now threatens to increase the number of soldiers and use the new supersonic missiles that they have developed recently. I see no end in sight for now as the escalation to a higher level is inevitable. Winter is coming soon and Europe will suffer from the cut in oil and gas supplies from Russia which is difficult to replace. The world just hopes that Putin will not use a nuclear weapon if he is forced into a corner.
For Taiwan, the Pelosi visit now allows China to up its game permanently at a higher heightened alert status for the foreseeable future. From the American angle, the main reason is not just standing up to China alone. Taiwan is now a more reliable purchaser of American military equipment. Being the top semiconductor producer in the world, there is also a strategic interest to want to steer all its production capacity away from America’s main competitor, China.
The move to decouple the 2 biggest economies is not a healthy long-term strategy. It will create more inflationary pressures for all. America’s anti-China rhetoric since Trump will come back to bite its ass. By not firing a single bullet, China has conquered many parts of the world (eg. Africa, Asia) via money politics. One belt, one road initiatives and generous government-to-government loans are diminishing America’s military might strategies. Its military lobby simply cannot allow this to happen.
Myanmar is the saddest story of the 3. How can a 300,000 persons strong military control a 55 million population? It had been closed to the world for 50 years before opening up less than 12 years ago. Signs are pointing to the country clamping up again very soon, to go back to the old ways of isolation. Most foreign investments have left the country.
The previous leader has been sentenced to increasing years of jail to silence the opposition. Civil war has started in regions around the country. All indications point to mass military suppression of the rioters for a very long time. I am so bearish that I quit my Myanmar consultancy job last Dec after 4 years. I cannot bear to see the destruction of what had been built up and feel helpless as an outsider who is unable to contribute anymore.
Myanmar looks like it is going back to dark times again as there are no possibilities of a strong opposition uprising. The military has the full support of China for strategic mutual win-win objectives. It is certainly depressing to see a country that is full of potential disappear again from the world map.
The 2nd comment that made me stand up was from the Clubhouse app chat room I listen to daily while exercising in the mornings. It is such a profound and simple message. “We RISE when we LIFT others up”. Help others from the good of your heart and expect nothing in return. The reward is satisfaction and warmth in your soul. I strongly believe in paying it forward. One should count our blessings daily and help others as much as we can without any expectations of returns to make it more enriching and fulfilling.
Just like to end my weekly blog with a recap of my agenda for the rest of 2022. The class reunion has just concluded and I think we all had a great time catching up with childhood schoolmates again. I am looking forward to a short trip to Bangkok with my older son and wife in mid-Sep to spend quality time with him before he goes back to the UK for his final year of study.
I signed a new consultancy contract this week with a firm that excites me with its possibilities. It has solar, ESG and Fintech all rolled into one. The CEO is also trying to create a viable carbon credits trading platform using crypto/blockchain technology. These are the things I have been preparing to pivot into for the last 4 years of lifelong learning which I can hopefully apply. This may result in a full-time role next year too.
I have also been accepted into the Rise 2.0 FinTech program which will be for 10 weeks. The target start date will likely be just after my BKK trip and goes into mid-Dec. Then we have a planned family vacation to France to end the year with a bang.
The next 4 months have been planned and will keep me busy with various projects as a result of planning and luck since Apr. I am positive that my lifelong learning at halftime will bear fruit as it energizes me in the near future.
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