The perfect storm may have arrived. Financial markets went crazy this week again, gyrating like crazy every day as panic grip investors. One day the American index was down 1,200 points and then it was up 800 the next day, then down again and up the next day.
Central banks all over the world used the only drug they have known for the past 12 years after GFC and cut rates again. The Fed cut 50 bps and the financial markets rallied. Then more bad news of the creeping wave of coronavirus sweeping the developed world spooked everyone.
Professional fund managers are also at a loss as to the future direction of stock prices as we are now dealing with a big unknown. Production lines have already been slowed down to a stop almost everywhere. Tourism and F&B activities have dropped to all-time lows.
It is funny to see supermarkets in Europe and America experiencing the same situation as we had a few weeks ago as panic buying sets in. Who knew that toilet paper was ever going to be a scarce commodity in times of panic? Things are getting surreal as all eyes are glued to the TV screens on the hour by hour tracking of the global spread of the virus.
Like the annual common flu, experts are hoping that things would get better when the weather warms up and the temperate countries start a warmer spring season in a few weeks time. The daily tension is worrying everyone as countries that do aggressive testing of citizens will naturally see a spike up of new cases, hoping that these will peak soon. The others who are ill-prepared to do extensive testing are getting accusations of hiding information.
On a personal front, we count ourselves lucky that our immediate family is safe. We have advised our aged parents to stay indoors as much as possible and to wear masks whenever they go out. It looks like older people are the age group that is most at risk. Those with pre-existing conditions are also prone to succumb to the virus.
We were relatively lucky with our travels so far. Wife and I went for a vacation to China last Apr. We were at a place in Central China call Yichang to embark on a river cruise up the Yangtze River. It was less than an hour’s drive to Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus in Hubei. Then I attended a Blockchain course in Seoul last Oct which my son and wife accompanied me. Now South Korea is also off-limits as more new cases pop up every day. Late Nov, we headed to Japan with a group of friends before our boys join us. We spent almost 3 weeks there. Again, the situation there has gotten worse.
We decided to go to New Zealand in mid-Feb as S’pore experienced a code orange alert a few days before we were scheduled to leave. In the end, we had a 9 hours delay for the departure but the trip turned out pleasantly well. Upon returning, we just heard that NZ had a first case of the virus this week. Apparently, it was from a passenger that was travelling on the same flight as us! But luck has it that we were in the opposite direction and boarded the same plane just a day earlier…
I did my monthly business trip to Yangon 2 days after returning from NZ and it was uneventful. They had not declared any cases yet but mask pricing there had already shot up 10 fold. The wife did a 1 week Bhutan trip and came back last week before she heard about a case there, after returning home. The near misses are getting scary, even though the probability of contracting it may be quite low.
As long as a country has adequate medical facilities and not become overwhelmed by new cases, the chances of recovery should be high. But this unease of an unseen enemy amongst us is stroking fear and panic worldwide now. People look to their governments and world health organization experts for guidance but they may not have the full picture yet.
Its time to buckle down and be extra careful, wash our hands more often and avoid unnecessary actions that may expose one to a higher risk of infection. These are strange and uneasy times indeed…
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