S’pore continues to have daily high positive Covid cases even as the 3rd booster shot is being rolled out to the most vulnerable group (>60 years old). The other factor that is more depressing is the death rate. We had hit an all-time daily high of 15 persons a few days ago.
For the death rate, we observe that most have comorbidities that made the covid infection fatal. But a trend we can see is that the majority are from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated (only 1 shot). They make up almost two-thirds of the fatalities. This is even more shocking as the unvaccinated group is now officially a minority group of the overall population as we are approaching the 85% vaccinated target for the population. If you exclude the children below 12 that are not eligible for the shots, then the numbers are even more glaring that the death rate for the unvaccinated is actually very high.
Assuming a population of 5 million, 15% equates to 750,000. If half are children below 12, then this number of unvaccinated persons is around 350,000. We are told that there are around 80k of elderly above 60 that belongs to this group. This is the most vulnerable group as almost all deaths are confined to 60 years or older to date.
There is a case to be argued that we should now have a compulsory vaccine mandate for those above 60. It is not only to save as many lives as possible but is also to ensure that our hospitals and ICU beds are not overwhelmed. Work-related mandates will not be effective for this group as most are retirees.
The authorities have recently implemented restrictive orders for the unvaccinated that includes not being allowed into malls and not being able to dine in at hawker centres. It seems like this group will eventually be squeezed to a corner to finally agree to take the vaccine. This is a gradual strategy as they move from the carrot to stick approach and hopefully to mandate it soon. Sometimes we need external forces to help us save ourselves from ourselves to get out of the echo chamber of fake news about the vaccines. The risk-reward ratio between taking or not taking it is very obvious now.
The other interesting observation that is happening now is the work mindset paradigm shift post-Covid. A recent US report indicates that up to 4.3 million workers are still missing from the workforce as the economy reopens. There are multiple reasons for it. Some believe that the Covid financial support measures that the government had rolled out are discouraging people from returning to the market. Working from Home (WFH) is the new normal and getting back to the office is now a fearful prospect for some.
I believe that the multiple unprecedented lockdowns we had experience over the last 18 months have changed all our previous work mindsets. We question the old way of doing things as technology had made us realised that online video calls are workable and viable. They are even preferred now as virus transmission is much high for face to face meetings. Most of your clients probably don’t even want to meet you in person nowadays!
The old concept of business travel, wasting many hours to fly overseas to attend a meeting with clients and colleagues, seems so alien now. Having a Zoom call is more effective, no? This has been how I have been communicating with my Myanmar team for the last 18 months as we battle crisis after crisis in my consultancy role. Necessity is the mother of invention.
Covid has also reshaped our thoughts and values of what we want out of work now. The pandemic had shown us how precious life is and the importance of spending quality time with your loved ones. It has helped us prioritize and refocus on what is important and what is not. Having material wealth is good, but is it the be-all and end-all? Is it time now to pivot to something that you really want to do before it is too late?
Self-reflection on your career at this point in time has probably made many reassess themselves and pushed them to do something different. The new normal has questioned whether one wants to start your own business as a better option than to continue on a regular 9 to 5 job for which you have no passion for. It is a critical halftime moment for many of us as we transition to the next phase of an endemic Covid.
On the personal front, it was a relatively quiet week as we head into the 3rd week of the lockdown, as I figure out what I want to do next going forward. Feeling a bit lost after I completed my IBM AI course and thinking of quitting the Myanmar consultancy work as the situation is so depressing and I feel helpless towards it as an overseas outsider.
Two things brighten me up though. My 4th year of participation in the NUSS Mentorship program kicked off on Monday as we mentors met 25 potential mentees over a Zoom call. It was not ideal and I almost wanted to drop out after the call as I think the selection process is weak. Thankfully, one of the candidates I shortlisted myself from the data provided before the call was proactive in reaching out to me to want to get to know me better via a one on one call. I guess we can click and we agreed to give it a shot.
I had been looking out for another course to sign up for, given my lifelong learning goal. They have been generally tech-related as my interest was reinforced after my 6 months IBM AI SGUnited course. But alas, I could not qualify for most of them as I had utilized the one-time subsidy for most courses. The previous application for a long term internship at Financial Institutions via IBF also did not look promising.
After about 10 applications, I chance upon a new one organized by my alma mater which piqued my interest. It was an 11 weeks course on Fintech in which the lecturers encouraged older mid-career PMETs to sign up during the preview session. I was quite surprised that they also conducted the required interview and assessment segments right after the preview call and made us apply online. It will start in Jan 2022 and I would have to pay an additional 2k after all subsidies. Looks promising. https://fintechlab.nus.edu.sg/nus-fintechsg-programme/
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/logistical-sandpiles
“In the COVID recession, people were forced to not work, or to work in very difficult situations. This made them rethink age-old questions. What do you want out of life? Long-haul truck driving is lonely and difficult, and from the data unhealthy. Most of my readers are retired or hold jobs they find fulfilling. But if you work in the lower levels of the hospitality industry or other dangerous jobs, if you don’t feel appreciated, maybe you start thinking about changing careers even if you make good money. The McKinsey data clearly shows that’s what is happening.
Second, COVID has introduced pressures into life that weren’t there before. And if you don’t feel comfortable going out in public, it’s difficult to say “I want a job” where you would be working in public. Throw in the political divide of mandates versus non-mandates, the finger-pointing, the politicization of the virus, the mis- and disinformation about vaccines and the virus, and you have a witch’s brew of reluctant workers.
Wages are important but less than many employers think. They are treating the problem as if it is a transaction. If I offer you more money, you should want to work here. But potential employees are obviously looking for something more than a mere transaction (money) to be the center and focus of their own personal lives. It is truly a clash of cultures, kind of like Baby Boomers not understanding Gen X or Y.”
“Worker shortages plus logistical difficulties plus rising demand add up to big economic problems. Shortages are becoming common in all manner of goods. Louis Gave listed three reasons in a recent note.
The first is the big data revolution. The newfound ability to measure everything has given companies and governments an incentive to eliminate redundancies and “optimize” the delivery of products and services. Unfortunately, systems with no redundancies are inherently fragile. When challenges appear, prices surge.
The second factor is previous policy interventions. If three years ago Donald Trump had not announced that China would no longer be allowed to import semiconductors built with US technology, would the world be facing the same chip shortages today? And if governments had not been so vocal about transitioning from carbon to renewables, would the world be seeing the current surge in energy prices?
The third, and most important, factor is today’s lack of workers. This was clear in the release Friday of disappointing US job numbers for September. Payrolls came in significantly below expectations. Yet the unemployment rate still fell, implying that US labor participation continues to deteriorate.
The real problem is we have very limited control over all these factors. Adding more redundancies might help but would take time and add costs, as Louis notes. It wouldn’t solve the near-term problem.”
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