Ukraine crossed the 1st anniversary of the Russian invasion this week. It was 12 months ago that a superpower attacked the country on the premise of liberating its citizens from Nazi control.
Since then, the war narrative has evolved while the world was severely affected just as it was getting out of the pandemic nightmare. Supply chains were disrupted and commodity prices surged. Sanctions were thrown at Russia and oil embargoes made things worse. Hedge funds made a ton of money in 2022 betting on the rise of raw material prices.
The Ukrainians fought back with everything but the kitchen sink. Their warrior history did not allow them to play dead and be trampled by the invaders. Putin’s expected walk-in-the-park lightning victory did not happen and multiple military generals changes later, we are still at a stalemate.
Initially, the West refused to send troops to help and hesitated to provide weapons for fear of escalating the tensions and provoking the Russian bear. That “supplying weapons” Rubicon line was crossed a few months later. NATO countries and America started to pour equipment into the country for Ukraine to defend itself against the invader.
Russia threatened the nuclear option repeatedly but had not pressed the button yet. We are now at the point where tanks and fighter jets are being sent over into Ukraine. The impasse going into winter seems to have hardened the resolves of both sides. They are dug in and aim to battle it out until the last man is standing.
Putin had initially proposed that Ukraine should stop its push to join NATO as a condition for a ceasefire. That made NATO and the EU even more determined to support the underdog against a bigger enemy. America contributed billions to date to arm and supply additional ammunition to the war effort.
There are 2 sides to the story and things are getting more complicated by the day. Russia claims that it is feeling threatened by the encroaching NATO countries circling them as more former Soviet Bloc countries signed up. Putin looks back to gaining the former glory of the USSR era before it collapsed in the 1990s.
The ease of the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by Russia emboldened Putin to try again in 2022 to capture more Ukrainian lands. The West and America had not done enough then and now realized that a stronger effort is required to push back the aggression.
India and China have steadfastly refused to condemn Russia for its actions, preferring to remain neutral. A non-Western cynic had even commented that Europe always thinks that its problems are the world’s problem, yet the world’s problems are not its problem. That thought process is coming back to haunt them as Asia superpowers refused to toe the line to join them now.
An Indian minister had insisted that it is the country’s right to do what is best for itself and not be dragged into other people’s problems. It continues to buy Russian oil as it is the cheapest. China still maintains that it will continue to have a strong relationship with Russia. It even proposed a plan to stop the war yesterday. The reaction to the proposal from the West was lukewarm as stopping the sanctions against Russia is a non-starter.
The overall winner? America. As more made-in-the-USA weapons are used and stockpiles are depleted everywhere, new orders are swelling up. The West has set up and positioned Ukraine to front the war against Russia by supplying it with seemingly endless weapons to fight back. Its citizens are suffering from daily bombardments that have destroyed its cities and created millions of refugees who have escaped to neighbouring countries to seek safety. American weapons manufacturers are very happy with the outcome as new orders are streaming in. The US deficit ceiling can just be increased further as the Fed prints more dollars to pump up its military machinery.
Unwittingly, Ukraine has become a pawn in America’s goal of maintaining its world leadership position. Rallying the Western world to fight for democracy and having Russia as the bogeyman spins a good narrative against Putin’s many years of warning NATO not to expand its borders. There is also the recent destruction of the Nordstream pipeline which some point to America as the culprit. The conspiracy theory was that it was done to deny Europe the ability to buy Russian oil. Why would Russia score an own goal to blow up the pipeline as most Western media sources are suggesting?
How will it all eventually end? The Western idealistic goal of defeating Russia is impossible unless we want to start World War 3. Just to kick them out of Ukraine requires endless tons of weapons and time. Lasting another year into this war is foolhardy. Russia needs its pound of flesh to retreat gracefully without its tail between its legs. Ukraine will need to surrender some territory to negotiate a meaningful peace settlement. Why not give up Donbas? It is pro-Russia and housed the rebels that were fighting Ukraine for a separate state. This may be a reasonable means to end this unnecessary war that has destroyed the country.
Meanwhile, we see a similar situation in Asia which the world had already forgotten that it still exists. No one hardly pays lip service to it anymore. Myanmar had a military coup a year earlier on 01 Feb 2021. Many of its citizens had been killed or imprisoned. The generals refused to negotiate and the country has since turned inwards into itself, having only open up to the world 11 years ago after 50 years of exile.
Foreign investors have gotten out of the country and sold out their onshore stakes. The country is now a pariah to the world and nobody wants to lift a finger to help. It is a forgotten topic as Ukraine news hogs the limelight. The tragedies of war are terrible but there is unequal treatment depending on the big-picture objective. Sad but true.
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