Theories About the Trump Effect

You cannot avoid reading about Trump in the last few weeks. It’s Trump this, Trump that, a bull in a china shop, an 8-year old let loose in a candy store.

Have to give it to the Donald for starting his term with a bang, not giving a F&%K about anyone. Well, at least he is trying to live up to his campaign promises and trying to do whatever he said he would do but within less than 2 weeks.

Most thought that he would tone down on his campaign rhetoric once he is in office but boy were we surprised that he continued with his hard-charging tactics into the White House. He continues to behave like an impatient CEO driving a business (into the ground?) and making snap decisions based on instinct rather that like a strategist that would look at the end game and then work backward. Even his inner circle are mostly left holding the baby later and trying to explain half-baked ideas that have not been carefully thought out.

His tweets are having a life of their own. One of my dealer friends is lamenting that traders now have to be on stand by every morning at 3 am to watch for his new tweets to see what they have to sell or buy immediately… The article below sums up this phenomenon very well :

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/15/arts/trump-twitter-and-the-art-of-his-deal.html?_r=1

He uses his tweets as temporary distractions, to sway the journalists and moves on so fast to the next topic that the media cannot catch their breath before the next big thing explodes.

The next interesting article I came across was surprising from a least expected source, the creator of the Dilbert comic strip, Scott Adams.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/156532225711/the-persuasion-filter-and-immigration

He believes that the Donald is a Master Persuader for both the left and the right. Like a businessman, his first offer on the table is always the most extreme so that there is room for him to negotiate. The chaos that is created will help him please both sides later – (1) To tell his supporters that he has tried his best but the country will not allow him to go further and (2) To negotiate a softer approach with the anti-Trump camp to lead them to believe that he is moving away from the extreme first offer. Hence a win-win for him. He is flipping the world around on its feet, taking a totally unexpected and non-politically (and more business minded) strategy. Will it work? Only time will tell. Are we closer to WW3? He is trying to lead us to think that we are heading there and aim to justify the means to his end game.

 

 

 


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