Let’s just first establish the timeline. The saga started in early Dec as cases began to appear in the Wuhan seafood market. By end Dec, the Chinese authorities had flagged the virus as an issue. Before the CNY holiday period on 25 Jan, most were well aware of it and China had already started to ring-fence Wuhan as the situation worsens. So on a global scale, we are now into our 5th week of the new viral strain which supposedly came from bats.
This reminds me of the SARS episode in 2003 where we went through 17 years ago. It was the blind leading the blind then. We had no clue as to what was happening and the fear was very real as people started dying. No one knew then about how the virus was transmitted, other than it was highly contagious and no one was spared. Even healthy people succumbed to it and brave doctors who volunteered to be at the front lines were affected. A shout out to Dr Alex Chao, an ex-schoolmate who made the ultimate sacrifice to S’pore. He was one of the 33 fatalities in S’pore. SARS total global cases were 8,096 that resulted in 774 deaths worldwide.
I was working in an American bank then when cases began to occur in S’pore. The COB (Continuity Of Business) plan was activated. I was one of the small group of people who were told to report to work at a remote location on the west side of the country. The plan then was to have 2 separate teams in case one got infected and had to be quarantined and shut down. Eventually, a 3rd group working from home was also initiated.
We were told that this process was temporary, that it will last a few days at best. It stretched to a week and then became a month. We were totally unprepared as the computer servers at the site could not support all of us. An email took 5 minutes to read… All that time, we were wondering how bad the situation really was, being clueless of the unseen enemy that could be floating anywhere within the air we breathe. Well, we survived that and since then, we had MERS and H1N1 until the new Coronavirus arrived today.
This time, the governments reacted decisively, though some may also argue that actions were too late. China started slow but once the machinery was activated, they conducted one of the world’s biggest quarantine exercise by ring-fencing an entire city in order to slow down the spread. When medical resources were tight in Wuhan, they built a new 1,000-bed hospital within 10 days. The overwhelmed medical staff there suffered the biggest blow to date as they were inundated with patients they could not handle and were exposed to the full effect of the virus. A city was sacrificed to save the country and the world.
To date, more than 32,000 individuals were infected and the death toll now stands at over 700, nearing the SARS total. The fatality rate is only at 2% (outside China, it is 0.02%), versus SARS at 10% and MERS 34%. So far, all the deaths occurred mainly in the Wuhan region. It is likely because the overworked hospitals could not handle the sudden overload and infection became very high as patients were kept together in the same wards. At their current weather temperature of 6 degrees Celsius and with low humidity, the virus is able to survive for up to 100 hours and become very contagious.
In S’pore, we have had 33 cases so far and no fatalities yet. 2 are currently in the intensive unit. Our high average temperature of 26-32 degrees and high humidity makes the environment very hostile to the virus. It probably can survive no more than 1 hour outside the body. The government had just raised the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) level alert level from Yellow to Orange yesterday and caused a panic rush to stock up on food.
Globally, the infection rate outside China still seems very low with hardly any fatalities at all. Even in regions in China but outside Hubei, the virus has not really seemed to be as deadly as we thought. Yes, it is contagious, but yet many have recovered from it too. The facts and figures presented so far do suggest that while it is like the common flu, it may not be as deadly as SARS or MERS. It has been 5 weeks since the alarm was raised and may take a few more weeks to run its course.
Like the annual flu season, when winter ends and spring begins with the warming of the seasons, the flu cases tend to decrease and end. It looks likely that the coronavirus will behave the same way too. How fast it spreads remains to be seen, but the exponential rise seems to have tapered off.
In the age of social media, rumours are easy to circulate and panics are easily whipped up. The governments are trying their best to be proactive but that might also result in unnecessary worry and unreasonable actions. There is a fine line of balance where the masses can tip over anytime. Being level headed when well wishing friends flood you with Whatsapp messages of dubious nature is extremely difficult to be.
We just need to stay extra vigilant and be careful. Wash hands often and to maintain a high level of hygiene during this period of time. Like in the previous situations, all this will pass soon too.
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