In the last few weeks, many countries have seen a surge in cases caused mainly by the Delta variant. Even as billions of vaccines have been injected and countries like Israel and S’pore hitting a greater than 80% population being vaccinated (plus a 3rd booster kicking in), the positive cases seem to be exploding.
To be fair, the death rate does not seem to be much higher than the highs achieved last year even as positive cases rising, except in S’pore where it had always been low but it had more than doubled in the last one mth. Everyone is getting confused and scared with all the mixed messaging going on. Is vaccine herd immunity still a viable working solution? What is really going on now?
Two schools of thought had been fighting it out in different countries. For zero tolerance ones like China, HK and Australia, it means a full lockdown to contain the virus. For countries like Europe and the US, they are moving towards an endemic strategy to target reopening with the realization that we have to live with the virus amongst us.
S’pore is one such country that is caught in the middle of both schools of thought. While we have done so well since last year in contact tracing to ring-fence linked and unlinked clusters, we are also trying to move cautiously to an endemic strategy too.
At one end of the argument, there is a call to have more lockdowns to stop the spread to protect everyone. At the other end of the debate, there are calls to continue to pivot to reopening as it is inevitable. Are we taking 2 steps forward and one backwards or is it 1 step forward and 2 backwards?
This is not an easy problem to address and we need to look at the facts and science to determine the next steps. Firstly, the recent deaths have mainly occurred in the most vulnerable group of older people above 60 years old. The ratio of unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated mortality was a factor of 3 to 1 (35 versus 12 deaths). Additionally, almost all of the vaccinated had prior medical comorbidities which made contacting Covid fatal for them. Hence the 3rd booster shot had been rushed out to this group as a way to further protect them from this deadly surge.
Yet we still have about 80 to 100k of unvaccinated seniors. Should the authorities mandate vaccination to this high-risk group now? I believe that it is prudent to do so as a way to further minimize deaths. Most from this group may be fearful of the vaccine, live alone or feel that there is no need for it as they are near the end of their lives. If the government mandates it, then they would have no choice. This will be the best way to save as many lives as possible now.
Vaccine mandates are already starting to show higher vaccination results around the world. Private companies, medical facilities and government agencies are beginning to require them by a certain deadline or face job termination. Some Americans as usual are bitching about 1st amendment rights against the vaccine mandates. But isn’t community safety more important than individual choice in a pandemic situation? The virus does not discriminate and seeks out every weak link to exploit them. Some anti-vaxxers ironically don’t even want to wear masks and continue to fight for their “freedom” to get back to living a normal life. Don’t they get it that they are now the cause of a prolonged Covid winter?
As billions of people are vaccinated, the unvaccinated are slowly becoming the minority. The majority therefore should have the right to restrict their movements in order to contain the spread. Nurses who refuse should not be allowed to be near vulnerable old and sick people as the risk of contamination is high. This is logical fact and science-based. To date, if your livelihood is threatened, the hesitancy to the vaccine is shown to be lowered. You will take it to preserve your job.
Financially and economically, S’pore like all countries have been suffering. National reserves are being used or more fiat money printed to subsidize the badly wounded economies. We are nearing the 2nd anniversary of Covid soon and the pressure to go back to some kind of new normal is reaching breaking point. Mental health is a growing concern for every human being. Zero tolerance of the virus is unsustainable and I believe that an endemic strategy of reopening is the only logical way to go, unless you are China and can create a permanent wall around its borders and just ignore the rest of the world by looking inwards.
If we need to take baby steps to an endemic strategy of reopening, so be it. But we cannot walk backwards. We have to proactively protect the vulnerable using mandates if necessary. We need to lessen the fear associated with the virus as we are now in a better position to fight back using vaccines. Those that still refuse to take it even after all scientific facts and proof had been provided should have their movements and privileges severely restricted for the good of society. Statistics should be changed to just show the critical cases and the load on ICU beds instead of trying to scare citizens with maps of where to avoid in our little red dot.
It is time to make bold moves to chart our next move and to remove the confusion to fight the unseen enemy head-on. 21 months is enough and humanity will and must win.
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