Yes, we survived our New York vacation and returned home safely on Thurs to a country that has almost no Covid restrictions anymore. It feels nice yet strange that we are seeing normalcy for the first time in more than 2 years.
I was in New York for the last 2 weeks getting to know the city better again after my first and last trip there in 2005. My wife was there for a business trip and I tagged along for a vacation with my younger son who joined us from Paris. He was there with his med school classmates for a well-deserved group vacation which was delayed from last Dec due to Omicron.
The weather was erratic, hovering between 7 to 18 degrees Celsius with some sunny days and light rain but mainly cloudy and overcast. We signed up for a number of free walking tours where you tip the guide at the end based on what you think it was worth. This concept is very popular in Europe and previously, we had good experiences mainly in Italy.
We did the New York introduction, Financial district/Chinatown/Little Italy and Manhattan at night walking tours. Also visited the Statue of Liberty and the 9/11 museum monuments. Security was not as tight in 2005 as it has been more than 20 years since that unforgettable attack on the twin towers.
There were 2 main takeaways I had while there. Firstly, everything was so freaking expensive and chargeable!! Even leaving your luggage in the hotel after checking out was $5 per piece per day. The compulsory tipping was crazy as they want you to tip at least 20% as a service charge for all the bills. The total bill would come to you with the government tax add on of about 9% and a suggested tip of 18/20/25% to choose from, with the numbers breakdown to help you write it down before signing off. I rather they just add service charge upfront and be like S’pore with only 10%.
Dollar for dollar, prices were slightly higher than in S’pore but the USD/SGD exchange rate is 1.3800 making the final amount much higher for us in SGD. One cannot get a decent meal for less than $20 per person. A slice of pizza with a drink is the cheapest at under $10. Inflation is sky-high and it is reflected everywhere.
There was the other major takeaway I got from New York: Marijuana/Cannabis/Weed. I could smell it everywhere, especially while at Times Square and most public parks. Apparently, the city finally legalized recreational Marijuana last year and it has seen an explosion of business since then.
I see one-man stores being set up in the public parks, and food trucks selling weed candies everywhere. Every seller has a particular weed mix to push and you just get used to knowing the smell as it is in the air all the time. New York became the 15th state to legalize the recreational use of marijuana and many weed companies are rushing to open up in this new market space which is estimated to be worth $7 billion.
I guess this is a blowback to the last 10+ years of synthetic drugs thanks to the TV series “Breaking Bad”. The opioid crisis where the manufactured drug made addiction so severe. A gram of these impure manufactured synthetic drugs can kill you – Prince, George Michael etc. Hence I believe there is a return back to naturally cultivated drugs again. Marijuana at least is naturally grown and less likely to become fatal. The argument is that it is no worse than getting high on alcohol or smoking a cigar.
Covid now seems to be an afterthought after 2 long years of restrictions. The light symptoms of Omicron have encouraged most countries to reopen, even as new variants continue to show up. Everyone is fed up with lockdowns, masks and vaccine fights. Are we near the finishing line soon? Can I stop the weekly Covid count on my blogs? My blog today is week 114. Is Covid becoming harmless and like the common flu going forward? Can we move on back to the life we knew pre-2020?
We had a pleasant surprise during the trip when S’pore announced a relaxation of Covid rules from 26 Apr onwards. No negative test is required for entry into the country anymore after this date. That was a great relief for us as New York continues to be a hotbed for Omicron and the latest report indicates that 55% of New Yorkers probably already had Covid before.
When we were getting ready for our flight to New York to begin our vacation, a family member tested positive. We were worried that we could not get a negative test 24 hours before our SQ flight as that was the minimum USA requirement to board the flight. Thankfully, everything turned out alright and we had a great family vacation. The highlight was our short trip to Niagra Falls in Buffalo at the end of the trip. That ticked off an item on my bucket list – we saw one of the wonders of Mother Nature.
It was a strange and difficult week for the financial markets. The Fed finally hike interest rates by 50 points on Wed and DJI rallied by 900+ points as they promised not to have 75 points hike in the near future. Then all the gains were given back and more the next day as it fell 1,000+ points. Bonds and all asset classes fell in tandem on Thurs too.
There were probably a lot of margin calls as the weakness of the markets had been felt for weeks and this sudden shocking turn around was the last straw for a number of highly leveraged investors. Cryptos going into the weekend fell too as margin calls were further triggered into this 24/7 space.
We do know that the Fed is likely to hike another 50 bps twice in Jun and July but is this enough? It depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war which has been affecting oil and commodity prices. Sanctions on Russia could remain for much longer which could exacerbate the squeeze on raw material prices. Supply chain issues can get worse if China continues with its zero Covid restrictions.
It is difficult to decide if it is the right time to average down or if this is the bear market that we have been waiting for since the 2008 GFC. Rates have remained low for so long and it had inflated all asset classes. But can this cheap money trend be reversed as America pumped in 30% of new money to support the economy in 2021? The US Dollar is currently riding high as a safe haven currency but if it ever collapses, then it is game over for the financial markets.
Will China and Russia be able to move away from the global dependence on the US dollar now? That will be a tragic blow to the Fed’s magic printing machine if it comes true. This year has been off to a terrible start since Jan and more volatility is expected into this month. I wish I have a crystal ball to see into the near future…
Leave a Reply