New Normals – Week 9

25/55 – We are into the 25th day of the Circuit Breaker Lockdown today. 30 more days to go till 01 Jun.

Life has gone into a routine now. Daily morning run followed by a callisthenics session at the front pouch, then breakfast and reading the newspaper. After a shower, its PC from late morning till dinner time with short breaks in between for lunch and a coffee. Some days are occupied with conference calls for my Myanmar job or keeping busy with online courses and video editing. Weekends are a highlight with so much free premium online content to watch. I am also trying to read 4 ebooks at the same time as it is easy to borrow from the national library with an extended 21 days rental time.

Days are getting similar as each day rolls into another. Weekends and weekdays look the same nowadays. Every member in our family goes into their own rooms for work/play/study and meet only during meals. I constantly remind myself that we are luckier than most, that we do not have to worry about where the next meal is coming from.

The week has been peppered with news of promising solutions on the vaccine front. Stock markets seemed to be running ahead of itself just because of this reason. With the energy of the whole world focused on Covid19 now, chances are getting better now of an accelerated discovery of a cure. But global leadership is fragmented and lacking. The private sector has to step in to play this role, though it is chaotic sometimes.

I came across an article this week that summarizes the difference between this pandemic and past crises. I would like to share it here and add a few more. New Normals will be established after all this is over. Some points to highlight:

1. Pandemic crisis worsens due to self-inflicted moves

In order to starve the virus and prevent the spread, all governments had to voluntarily shut down their economies via lockdowns. This self-inflicted move was inevitable due to the swift contagion spread of an unseen enemy that does not care for borders. Previously, a crisis was the result of factors that triggered the situation eg. GFC caused by the collapse of Lehman. Now we intentionally manufacture it ourselves.

2. Speed of this downturn is unprecedented

This happened in a matter of months! End to end, the GFC took almost 18 months to play out. Things still looked normal in Feb and look at where we are now, just after 3 months. The first cases were detected in Dec and it has now swept through the whole world in weeks.

3. Each and every individual on planet earth is impacted

This pandemic affects everyone at the same level. Fear of our own mortality during every waking hour is very real. What if I get it? How will it affect my love ones? Will I spread it to my grandparents? For the 2008 GFC, most of the general population that did not hold stocks were not even aware of the financial crisis around them.

4. Take up of technology has been accelerated exponentially

WFH (Work From Home) had created the need for a firm’s tech infrastructure to become robust overnight. Going cashless and shopping online take-up rates have shot through the roof. Food delivery is the norm now. Netflix video streaming video on demand is a given. Zoom/Hangout/Skype/Teams group calls to connect are essential new knowledge. Just this week alone, we did a Zoom video call to celebrate my dad’s 91st birthday. We also had a virtual happy hour call with close friends yesterday evening.

Do we really need offices and do overseas business trips after this episode? If one can work from home using technology to connect rather than go to an office, why do we also need to travel for business anymore?

5. Is Globalization good?

Interconnected processes, the specialized center of excellence for production factories have revealed the close interdependence weakness of supply chains. All countries now worry about having alternate sources of food and basic necessities. The major flaw of globalization has been exposed. Nations are now thinking twice about moving production overseas and would prefer self-sufficiency in the future.

6. All our weaknesses have been exposed at the same time

Each and every government have been scrambling to resolve the virus situation. Every weakness in the system has been mercilessly exposed. S’pore and its FW foreign worker dilemma. America with its broken multi-payer health care system. The plight of developing countries with zero ability to stop the virus. Examples are endless.

The only bring spot : all these economic stoppages have given mother nature time to recover. Pollution is down and hopefully, climate change risk is reduced.

7. All businesses big and small have been kicked in the nuts

No business has been spared. It has created a tsunami of pain for all companies big and small. Instant closure of businesses means that cashflow goes to zero immediately while expenses (salary and rental) continue to be incurred. This is a non-viable and life-threatening event for all firms. As David Chang said, this is like Thanos in the Avengers flicking his fingers and 50% of F&B firms disappear. Big global companies are in shits too. Airlines had the carpet pulled from under their feet as everyone stopped flying. Tourism dollars disappeared overnight.

We are all permanently scarred by this virus. Lives have been turned upside down and everyone has been forced to face a new reality. It has been an in your face punch to every individual, pushing one into an unknown future and limbo that is still evolving.

A whole new different world is developing. New norms are established which no one could have foreseen just a few months ago. We are into a brave new world once the virus pandemic is over. What we take for granted previously will have to change drastically as the old ways die.