We live in extraordinary times. Never in my 30 years career have I seen the way the world is unravelling and decelerating at breakneck speed. Unlike previous financial crises, this one encompasses all aspects of economic life and human social interactions. It is impacting each and every individual in a very direct way which we have not experienced before in such a scary and systematic fashion.
The world first caught wind of this in late Dec as news leak out of China. As we head into the third month, the pandemic has quickened its pace and moved from East to West to engulf all nations who were ill-prepared and resisted the creation of a wall around their country in an effective way.
I originally thought that with the coming of spring and warmer weather that the virus will die a natural death. But what experts did not foresee was the emergence of the 2nd wave of infections from the West to the East. By trying to flatten the curve to manage hospital resources, we might have to prolong the pain. The virus is now reminding us that it is here to stay, by visually moving around the globe. Rumours of patients being re-infected again are scaring everyone too.
There are still too many unknowns at the moment. Every government is throwing everything but the kitchen sink into the widening black hole that used to be their economy. Effecting social distancing and lockdowns have caused economies to collapse spectacularly. USA jobless claims last Thurs reached a historical high of 3.3 million!!! (The previous high was only 800k). Daily rated and gig economy workers’ livelihoods have been wiped out instantly within a week.
The world has been so depressed that the equity markets this week started to grasp at every little good news as if this nightmare could end soon. The $2 trillion US packaged that finally was passed yesterday had caused markets to rally for 3 days this week, including an all-time one day gain in DJI.
Hello?? What are we talking about? The bad news continues to worsen. The virus is still ravaging non-stop in European countries. As expected with Trump’s clown show of a disaster planning so far, the USA had surged ahead to become number 1 in total number of cases detected. MAGA! 102k cases and counting, and Trump want to open for business by Easter… Epic shitshow.
The UK is another disaster waiting to happen. First mic drop moment was the announcement of Prince Charles getting the virus. Then Boris got it yesterday. A big flop of a strategy to let the virus pass naturally through the population has now given way to toilet paper panic buying. If the people at the top of the pyramid has the virus, what about the common man in the streets?
Interestingly, S’pore’s 2nd wave of imported infections is all mainly from the UK too! This implies that the virus may have already touched a large portion of the UK population. But their reported numbers are still surprisingly low. Is it like the US where testing is still very low? All the evidence is pointing to a rapidly worsening situation very soon. My wife’s niece is staying put in London with her 2 young kids as her husband’s parents are still there. They would want to be there for them. My son is supposed to start his undergrad studies in the UK in Oct. He worries if things will return to normal in 6 months time.
What is normal now? If you told me in Dec that this would happen, I would have thought you were crazy. How can the global economy do a backflip and jump off the cliff so fast when it was on top of the world then? On hindsight, the warning signs were already all around us, but I chose to be optimistic. The harbour in Wellington with parks ships and warehouses full of NZ pine wood was a forebearer of how the supply chains have ground to a halt.
We have not hit the bottom yet. The cases are still increasing at an alarming rate. It looks like a bottomless pit in front of the world with no end in sight. Every day is a slow crawl as we isolate ourselves with WFH (Work From Home) directives. Social distancing and closure of places of entertainment are recent actions enacted by the government.
Each individual is trying to internalize and contain the fear and panic that is surrounding us every day. Hopefully, there is a breakthrough soon and a cure or preventive measure is found. These are unprecedented times…
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