The week passed faster than normal. Perhaps it is because we are getting used to the New Normal and Lockdown situation. Maybe it is because the 01 Jun end date is nearer now. Or could it be that we have reached a low point in our pessimism and the only way is up now?
Most countries have by now extended their lockdown to the end of May while some have started a partial reopening of their economies. Every country and city is going through their own little live experiment to find a balance between ensuring the safety of its citizen versus restarting the economy again. A very tough choice politically but saving lives should be the priority, no?
We have had a lot of 2nd wave incidents reported this week in model countries like China, South Korea and Hong Kong. While they are ready and effective in clamping down aggressively based on their earlier experience of Covid19, it still is unimaginable to me how a government can make its borders virus-proof or is able to find and quarantine all asymptomatic carriers within its population.
The American President is still trying to stick his head in the sand without any coherent national plan against the virus, except for promoting more divisive politics. With the economy shot to hell (unemployment claims another 2.9 million more this week), he is running out of people to blame for the hole he has dug himself into. His best bet now for re-election in Nov is to plant a big bullseye target at China and blame them for everything. Just finished reading the latest book by Kishore Mahbubani: “Has China won?”. Good insights about China and USA which I will probably write a longer review in another blog in the future.
There are close to 100+ project teams in the world now racing to study Covid19, to understand it better in order to provide faster detection, treatment and eventually a vaccine. A breakthrough may be very soon, I hope. Never in human history have we seen and experienced how devastating something unknown could have crippled the world in a matter of months.
The world has become accustomed to New Normals which are still developing. Many of the old ways of doing things have simply become obsolete overnight. WFH (Work From Home) is a reality now, thanks to technology advances like Zoom. New ways of connecting (private Zoom parties, birthday celebrations, new ways of entertainment) to each other while we are trapped in our homes have sprung up. Mask wearing outside is a must now. The tsunami of firms going down is just beginning as they report a horrible Q1 where business revenue dropped off a cliff to almost zero while expenses remain.
The CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey just informed his people that they can work from home forever. Who wants to travel on business anymore if borders remain close and you get hit by a 14 days quarantine when you return? The death of the airline sector destruction is just beginning. No amount of bailout money can save an industry where almost 100% of its volume had disappeared in months and not likely to return any time soon.
The collapse in oil prices is now slowly inching up again from negative territory, but demand for it will not recover soon. Central banks flooding the markets with liquidity is just causing stock markets to diverge from reality. Comparing today with 2008 GFC, moral hazard has all but jumped off the cliff. No one is guarding the door now as the final group of policemen (aka the central banks) have given up and left the building. The debt bubble has grown exponentially. Japan is not the only one buying up its own stock and bond market now. Desperation calls for desperate actions, each man for himself in a self-preservation mode. UBI (Universal Basic Income) that was promoted by Andrew Yang may become a reality soon.
I saw a very inspiring Instagram effort this morning where many famous people congratulated the graduating Class of 2020. Graduation ceremonies have been cancelled and a dreadful employment environment awaits them. But the message is that we have to push on. This year will be a defining moment for this class of 2020 when we look back years from now. That they have conquered all odds to make the best of the situation. That they have to stay strong and push on, remembering that they have just gone through a momentous world-changing Covid19 event.
This week was also an interesting one on the personal front. The Myanmar firm I am working for has to plan and strategize daily for an ever-changing business environment. Every day, we had multiple conference calls to debate and discuss what actions were needed for the rest of May, based on Apr results. Should we be conservative or become more aggressive now? What do we forecast for the next month? Many minds brainstorming together is better than one in these uncertain times.
The best news of the week was delivered by my younger son. He was out in a field camp for his army national service most of this week till Thurs. The results of his application for medical school were out already but he only knew about it much later. We finally heard the good news on Fri night and we were so happy for him. It was one of the hardest faculty to get into and he managed to land a spot!
He has a quiet demeanour but yet can be headstrong and laser-focused once he makes up his mind. I am so proud of him. What really touched me was that he personally thanked me last night just before we went to sleep. I did not expect that and appreciated the gesture. He will be the first doctor we will have in the family.
All in all, the week seems to be less gloomy than in the previous weeks. We have mostly accepted the brave new world and its implications. Slowly, we are adapting to New Normals while I sense that humanity is picking itself up and fighting head-on into the unknown. We will bounce back and hopefully, see the major weaknesses exposed by the virus and have a higher determination to change them.
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