Getting Used to the New Normal – Week 12

Life is becoming a sort of regular routine for me now, just to stay sane. Wake up at 6 am for my daily 5 km run to get a breath of fresh air and a view of greenery. Do some callisthenic exercises on my front porch, have breakfast and read the papers. Shower, catch up on emails, do a few conference calls and lunch. Rest of afternoon in front of the PC for various projects, readings or youtube videos. Dinner and then to retire to the bedroom to read a few chapters of the books I borrowed. Sleep by 11 and repeat above again.

Every day feels the same now, regardless of whether it is a weekday or a weekend. I count my blessings that we are luckier than most, there is no need to worry about financials and with a roof over our heads. Unbelievable that every single person in the whole world is going through the same situation, but in different ways, as the virus continues to make its presence felt.

The week started with news of success on a certain vaccine and the Fed declaring that it has more ammunition to support the markets. The stock market rally on Mon was short-lived when doubts of the effectiveness of the vaccine surfaced the following day.

I was having a discussion with a friend that there is a disconnect between the markets and the actual situation on the ground. Q1 results for most companies were already terrible but they only reflected the impact of Covid19 for just one month in Mar. Q2 results for Apr to Jun will be even worst as the full gut-punch of the virus is realized due to the lockdown. Yet the stock index is running ahead of itself as if a cure would be found soon and we will all return back to normal soon.

We were toying with buying downside protection for our remaining trimmed equity portfolio. A purchase of an S&P 500 Put option expiring after June might do the trick. I am doing more research on this topic and he had provided me with some guidance since he was an FX options trader during our time together in the American bank. I will probably decide to do something next week after further study.

The interesting thing of the week for me was the potential to start a new part-time project. I had officially joined a local consultancy company in Apr where many like-minded people with years of financial industry experience group together to leverage on our expertise to pitch for short term consultancy contracts.

The founder had also started a new Whatsapp chat group for communication purposes which is helpful to provide an ongoing platform for an exchange of ideas. He would also update us on the deals he is working on or had successfully closed, plus interesting opportunities. An interesting opportunity came along and he was checking with the group if anyone was interested. It was to help the country’s Banking and Financial body set up a new series of exam questions for one of the industry’s benchmark regulatory certification paper.

Originally, I was a bit reluctant and lazy to put my hand up for it. The founder subsequently pinged me again on this opportunity and I thought “Why not?”. I submitted my updated CV and the person in charge connected with me a few days later. I am now at the stage of looking at the details of the contract and would probably go for this. Another interesting adventure on my halftime journey is beginning.

Back to the virus. We are all getting used to the new normal now. Thanks to Covid19, the world has been turned upside down in a matter of months. There has been no previous similar crisis to refer back to, except maybe the Spanish flu pandemic that happened more than 100 years ago.

But that was a completely different era during the industrial revolution and technology was non-existent then. The only learning from that episode was that the 2nd wave killed millions as everyone’s guard was down, thinking that it was all over. They celebrated in big parades thinking that the crisis was over and the virus came back with a vengeance. That is the main fear we have now. Some countries like America are reopening as we speak, without the confidence of knowing that the 1st wave has been brought under control.

There is no going back to the world we used to know just a few months ago. Many industries will die and new ones created. Wearing masks outside is the norm now. Our world has been turned upside down. Technology has enabled a Work From Home reality. Who needs to go to an office or do business travel now? The risks and downsides outweigh the upsides by a mile. Hopeful, humanity will be reset and refocused to what really matters – more equality, greater kindness and long-lasting actions to prevent climate change.

In a post Covid-19 world, new norms may emerge - The Economic Times


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