When will the Covid19 virus pandemic nightmare end? It is likely that it will never go away and that we have to get used to having it with us for a long time to come.
Countries around the world are realizing that with new variants popping up once in a while and that vaccinating the whole world is so difficult, we have to face the fact that the COVID19 pandemic will evolve to become an endemic going forward.
An endemic refers to a disease that exists permanently in a particular region or population. Like the common flu or smallpox, it occurs periodically and can take many years to totally eradicate if we have careful and successful global coordination efforts.
The S’pore authorities have started to prep its citizens on such a possibility over the last few days. As testing capabilities and the vaccination drive are ramped up, the easing of border restrictions will follow. Data gathered so far (since the first vaccinations started 6 mths ago from Dec 2021) suggest that it is effective in preventing serious hospitalization or death. Those that are vaccinated had an almost negligible (about the same rate as the common flu) mortality/hospitalization rate in this current Delta Plus wave.
The Covidiots in the US are still screaming about the possible long term side effects of the vaccines. What is there to shout about if you could die now when you are unvaccinated and then are exposed to the virus? Isn’t it better to take the possible long term vaccine risk to survive and stay alive in the current situation? All these efforts to convince this group to vaccinate is a wasted effort. Let them experience the virus on a first-hand basis then.
We are started to see a trend where countries are relaxing their border entry restrictions to those that are fully vaccinated. Quarantine periods are also reduced but more testing is now required. Before the inbound flight, one has to test within 3 days. Then at the airport, we have to show proof of vaccination. Upon landing, there will also be 2 to 3 more tests during the quarantine period at the designated centres. This appears to be a sensible approach – to reopen up slowly while getting used to an endemic normal.
The main goals of countries now are to get at least 75% of their population vaccinated and to boost testing capabilities. By then, the virus will become like the annual common flu where we have booster shots available every 6 months. Again, there is not enough data so far if booster shots for Covid19 are required as we only have 6 months of experience to date. Time will tell.
More and better vaccines are still being developed as we speak. Testing is getting more efficient and available, with results waiting periods from a week to 15 minutes now. I remember that S’pore only had a testing capability of 4k/day only just a year ago. Testing of the FW (Foreign Workers) dormitory outbreak last year had to be done on a batch basis to conserve the test kits. All individual test swaps from multiple roommates had to be combined together and tested as one batch. If the results were positive, all room occupants were assumed to have the virus and will be quarantined together.
Our testing ability is now more than 70k/day and newer self-test kits are also available for sale at pharmaceutical shops. We are realizing that the virus is here to stay and that we have to adapt to it accordingly. Getting used to it being around us and preventing high fatality/hospitalization will be the goals. The annual flu kills a lot of people every year, yet we have gotten used to it and have flu shots to provide an added layer of protection if anyone wants it.
The stock market had reached a new all-time high this week again. With everything dropping off a cliff in Mar 2020 when the virus hit the world, there were big drops of demand everywhere as the world went to a standstill. Supply chains froze and everyone had to stay at home during multiple lockdowns.
An increase from those low bases established last year seems like a big incremental uptick in absolute terms which excited investors. Companies with a tech edge that did well during this period of time also boosted the momentum. Central banks forced to spend and print more money to support its hapless citizens added fuel to the asset inflation bubble. Meme stocks, Cryptos and NFT crazy phases came and went. The velocity of money quickened as the retail markets chased the next big thing while financial institutions play catch up.
It is still hard to predict when and where this party will end, except that it may not happen so soon yet. I still think there are legs to run before 2021 ends. Meanwhile, it might be prudent to remain loaded up in selective assets to continue to ride this investment wave. Markets are still trying to adjust to this evolving new normal and it is not easy to look more than 6 months out into our crystal balls. We have to be nimble and constantly fine-tune our portfolio accordingly.
My older son finally got his first Moderna shot this week. His age group (12 to 39) was the last to be opened up for vaccine registration. The authorities have also prioritized citizens for registration for the first 3 weeks. We should hopefully reach herd immunity by National Day in early Aug.
A new opportunity opened up for me this week and I will have to study it in more detail before I commit to it. My data science exam is this Mon and it is the second last module of my full-time AI course which will end in Aug. There is a new program by IBF which will open for registration soon which I am keen on. Hopefully, that will bring me to the next stage of pivoting from a Treasury consultant role into a Business Analytics and AI career. This will help me to continue my life long learning journey.
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