Escalating US-China Tensions, New Biz Opportunity? – Week 23

It is less than 100 days to the US elections. Trump has official targeted China as the scapegoat for all things that had turned bad for America into the final days of the election campaign. Sadly, the voice of reason in American politics had turned silent.

The direct attack of a government against a social media app like TikTok is laughable at times as most users are teenagers trying to gain screen time with dance moves. Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat are similar apps which have gained worldwide adoption. Should they be banned too by other countries?

Lee Kai-Fu, the well known AI expert who was the head of Google China, sums it up well. For companies wanting to come to China, they have to abide by the rules and regulations stated by the country before deciding if they like to invest in the country. If the rules change and the company is not comfortable (like Google China had done), it then reserves the right to shut down, close its operations and leave the country.

America has done neither for TikTok. It just decided overnight that the app should be banned without specific charges directed at it, other than saying it is to protect Americans. Trump’s revenge on the Tulsa TikTok attack? It is never a good sign when a country directs its powers on an individual company (Huawei and now TikTok) to destroy it, rather than to diplomatically work with the country to resolve their differences.

China on its part had changed a lot and gained self-confidence on itself in the last few years. Its strategic moves have rubbed others the wrong way as it showed its arrogance as a rising star to the world. Their wolf warriors diplomatic corps, while being the best and are very smart, are not the experienced diplomatic types who will stand down when the reputation of the motherland is at stake.

This cumulation of tension has now blown up to a new level of animosity this week as Trump escalates it by many notches. It wants to target Wechat and others too. China is now the favourite bogeyman for American politics and everyone seems to be united against this common foe.

Will China retaliate or stay silent? It is a tough choice as the American elections are so near. Hit too hard and the new president might continue the pressure. Not responding will also anger its citizens. There is also the ongoing tariff war which complicates matters. China looks like it is adopting a tit-for-tat strategy with a matching response, being careful not to escalate the matter further.

China is playing the long game by waiting out the next 90 days to get further clarity on whether it should play hardball. The Chinese are very patient and they measure historical cycles in 100 years tenors. I read that they see China history hitting rock bottom in 1940 during WWII and so they expect to peak in 2040. This is 30 years for now and a generation away. They have been preparing for this. One Belt One Road is one such long game strategy they are executing.

With their population size, they are now preparing to turn inwards as a strategic move to shelter themselves from the protectionistic state where all countries are heading towards because of Covid19. They aim to support their domestic markets and not rely too heavily on exports into the near future. Tech advances like AI will also allow them to improve productivity by leaps and bounce.

On the personal front this week, I started with a very lovely dinner with a core group of guys I have known since uni days. We have grown old together over the past 30 years, seen each other gotten married and raised our families together. We celebrated with some very nice vintage whisky – Glenfarcas 1987. The 33 years old drink was smooth and easy to drink. It went well with the seafood and the Alaskan crab 🙂

I had another regular lunch with a group of close ex-colleagues on Wed. The food business venture which I had been talking to them about for the last 1 year is finally looking to take up some form and shape as we are seriously considering it now. The last person still working is considering it as his plan B as the banking sector looks to deteriorate further like the rest of the jobs markets due to the Covid19 situation.

It is a simple concept of introducing fine Japanese meats at a more affordable price to the affluent mass middle class in S’pore. There seems to be a niche where we can profit from. More work needs to be done and we have assigned each other with tasks to complete before we meet up again next week to recce some possible shophouses in Joo Chiat as the next step.

My car is in the final stage of repairs after the accident more than 1.5 weeks ago. I was to pick it up on Fri but it was delayed. They kindly provided me with another courtesy car for the long weekend ahead into National Day celebrations tomorrow… Majulah Singapura!!

Another 5 more weeks to my UK adventure with son to start his 3 years uni there…

National Day Banners for NDP, Singapore - Pullupstand.com


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