Delta has thrown every country’s reopening strategy into chaos in the last 3 months. The only Covid startegy of herd immunity via vaccinations is now a big question mark.
Since Dec 2020, it had been the main goal of many governments to roll out the vaccination plan as quickly as possible to stop the virus. We have had the original Alpha variant last year and then it was Beta before the deadly Delta mutation appeared in Q1. It has totally crippled the idea of getting back to normal by summertime as cases surged into Q3.
While the overall death rate seems to be lower than last year’s peak, the spike in positive cases had reached previous highs and seems to be out of control. Israel activated its 3rd booster shot plan a few months ago in the hope of arresting this trend. But at the moment, the data is still inconclusive if the booster protects a highly vaccinated population.
But the US and S’pore have already decided to go ahead with the booster vaccine for the high-risk older age group anyway. It seems like the vaccine protection will wear off slowly after a period of 4 to 6 months. A recent study showed that the vaccine efficacy could drop from 90+% effectiveness to 77%. It was suggested that the amount of other medications for comorbidities that this older group had to take may somehow affect the strength of the vaccine.
In S’pore, the positive case count had been steadily rising from below a hundred to more than 1,500 a day now. The authorities have warned us that it could shoot up to a few thousand soon. New restriction of movements had been announced last night, to reduce dine-in to 2 from 5 persons starting on Monday for a month.
This start-stop approach is baffling all of us as the uncertainty has created a fear of the unknown. The authorities are executing a work in progress endemic strategy and have been trying to figure out each step as new challenges appear. There is no established playbook to rely on. On top of that, we have a population vaccinated rate of more than 82% now. So are vaccines working or are we to blame the remaining minority who still refuse to take the vaccine for this surge?
We do know that regardless of being vaccinated or not, a person can still get Delta and spread it. But a vaccinated person stands a better chance of getting a mild reaction without the need to be hospitalized or to be ventilated. An unvaccinated person is 11 times more likely to die from the virus. There is a possibility that we have to continue to take booster vaccine shots periodically for the foreseeable future as new variants emerge.
Globally, developed countries have sufficient vaccine supplies to provide for their population. But the rest of the world, especially developing ones are still scrambling to get enough of it. Hence in these countries, the chances of a new variant being formed remain high and it may be years before they complete the vaccination process. Polio and measles took a look time to reach total eradication globally and we could see the same for Covid.
Currently, the sudden surge in cases everywhere is worrying for everyone. Are vaccines working and is getting herd immunity via vaccine still the goal? The target was raised from 70% to 80 and even 90 now. We know that Delta is a few times more contagious than the older variants. Deaths are now happening mostly for the older age group with comorbidities like hypertension and diabetes in S’pore. But in the US, it is happening mainly in the unvaccinated group for all ages.
S’pore is trying to take the 2 steps forward and one step back approach to formulate its endemic strategy. This has frustrated both sides of the argument to reopen/close the economy. Going back to a total lockdown is out of the question now but taking baby steps forward seems to be the only viable solution.
Contact tracing is another area that is being questioned now. Seeing unlinked clusters previously invoked fear and the avoidance of certain areas for the general public. But if we are to treat the virus as an endemic going forward, should we still continue to track it so closely? We don’t do it for the common cold, do we?
One interesting comment from a doctor friend was enlightening to me. He had been vaccinated but wants to get covid now because it would be the ultimate natural protection against the virus, on top of the vaccine taken. But he is unable to do so as he belongs to the front lines and has to be tested every week for Covid.
Where do we go from here? I suspect that after our new mini one-month lockdown, we will continue our baby steps towards reopening again. The economic cost of multiple lockdowns over the last 18 months has been highly damaging to businesses and eating into the country’s reserves rapidly. This new lockdown for 4 weeks will cost the government another SGD 650 million of new subsidies.
Those that fear the rising cases in the next few weeks will now stay home and play it safe while waiting to get the booster shots. The rest would try to lead as normal a life as possible within the current restrictions in this new normal.
Would this continue much longer? The last 1918 pandemic took about 2 years to subside and we are almost near the milestone now. With newer technology and knowledge, we should stand a better chance now to defeat the virus and keep it at bay effectively soon. Fingers crossed…
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