Yes, our election season goes into full swing this week towards polling day on 10 Jul. The period for rallies has been shortened to just over a week because of the Covid19 situation.
We now have 11 opposition parties against the incumbent party, one of the most in recent history as all 93 wards will be contested. No walkovers anymore. There will be lots of news content on social media as physical rallies are prohibited. We will have rallies on national TV every night which would provide for interesting evenings rather than the Netflix diet we were fed on during lockdown over the last few months. I will try to make some bold predictions at the end, at the risk of hurting my own ego if proven wrong 🙂
Every 4 to 5 years during election fever time, family and friends begin a ritual of amping up their rhetoric on personal views about the candidates. Over the years, you will get to know who is always on which side and the ones that sit on the fence. Given that the country has been majority ruled by one main party since its 1965 independence, the opposition party has remained relatively small by default.
A prominent leader like LKY takes no shit from anyone and crushes opposition parties with lawsuits. With his larger than life persona and what he had achieved for the country, the citizens were more forgiving to his harsh treatment of the opposition minority. Times have changed. Two generations of leaders later, the public is less forgiving in a social media world.
While our politics are less polarizing than other countries like America, the fact that we have not had much of a strong opposition before means they have a huge mountain to climb. The incumbent has a large majority that enabled them to push through policies easily, after getting feedback and parliamentary debate.
My generation, born after independence, had benefited the most over the last 50 years of a meteoric rise from developing to a developed country. We have experienced progress than no other country in the world had seen and is the envy of many. Many are now calling for a bigger opposition to instil a better system of check and balance. Politicians here have the highest salaries globally to ensure that we stamp out corruption. But does their performances justify that? When mistakes are made, are they held accountable and should they apologize?
During LKY’s legacy, he never apologizes. He attacks the problems head-on and makes firm decisions on what is best for the country. If challengers question him, he has lively debates to counter punch back. The current party still retains this trait of no apology as it is seen as a sign of weakness. Certain questionable decisions made were brush off as “Father knows best” for the good of the country. More transparency of certain topics was deemed to be not in the nation’s interest to reveal.
This has given rise to more disenchantment amongst the people in the age of the internet. Social media removes the perceived glass ceiling of every keyboard warriors’ fantasy to attract eyeballs and to magnify every small detail. The sky is the limit and the speed of transmission is real-time. The incumbent party is now fighting against 11 opponents on a level playing field on the internet, unlike previous elections where rallies on the ground were the most visible tool used to sway public sentiment.
There are typically 3 types of voters. The first group is pro-incumbent and will always vote for them. They are grateful for what they have been provided for in the last 50+ years and are confident that they can help us weather the storms ahead. They question the need to change the system if it is not spoilt.
The 2nd type is the voter who will only vote for the opposition. They are angry that the incumbent has deteriorated, made mistakes and refuses to admit them. They want a bigger opposition presence in parliament to provide a better system of check and balance.
The last type is the ones sitting on the fence. They can have a top-down (macro) or a bottom-up approach. The top-down ones assess the overall quality of the opposition and vote for them if the quality meets their benchmark. The bottom up voters looks at the candidates in their constituency/wards to decide if they should vote for the incumbent or the opposition team.
I belong to the 3rd group of bottom-up voters. My one vote is only applicable to my ward. The candidates have to win my vote by demonstrating to me that they deserve it. As it is now, I am swaying towards the incumbent. My reasons as follows: I have personally witness how hardworking the incumbent candidate had been over the years, spending a lot of time on the ground. His team mates consist of a new member who was the founder for a company that mainly supports local talents. The leader has always been seen as arrogant but is a good debater.
For my ward’s opposition team, one of them was my ex-colleague. Not proven yet if he is committed as he comes from a well to do family. The other new entrant to his team is someone I do not have much trust in his integrity. He has been changing opposition parties, started his own one and just dissolved it to suddenly rejoin this party to contest in this election. They have up to next Wed to convince me otherwise.
My bold prediction? Yes, the incumbent’s majority will be lesser than the last election which had the passing of LKY effect. Covid19 and $93 billion of stimulus may have helped them a bit here though. The NCMP system’s increase from 9 to 12 places would provide for more opposition too. Like the last 2 elections, the opposition rally cry seems much louder but the final results were always in the incumbent’s favour eventually.
We should have a 50 to 100% increase in successful opposition members making it into parliament (likely PSP and WP for a total of 10, 2 GRC wards of Aljunied and West Coast). The absolute number is small, to begin with, but that is a start. We are still a long way from having more than one major political party but its a good start in that direction.
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