A strange thing happened last week. Protests erupted all over China against the strict lockdowns they have been experiencing. People from all walks of life, mainly the younger ones, took to the streets holding blank white sheets of paper as a sign of being fed up with the unreasonable Covid restrictions.
This was really a glaring sight in a communist/socialist country where it is always the community before self, the exact opposite of Western democracy that places self-interest before society. It was a reminder of what started in HK in 2019 which went south very quickly. Authorities had to clamp down very fast to prevent it from spiralling out of control.
What happened and have we seen this before in other countries? What proactive steps had China taken since then? Let’s take a step back to analyze the situation leading to this.
While the rest of the world had moved on to a post-Covid endemic phase, China was still in its zero Covid strategy. It had served them well since the pandemic started in Dec 2019. Its people could lead normal lives even as the rest of the world started to be hit by the tsunami and borders had to be eventually shut.
With various waves of variants hitting everyone, all of us were helpless and locked in our homes wondering what wiould happen next. It took a year before the vaccines were ready for humankind to launch a fight back against the virus. 2021 was a crazy year where we saw the hopes of a recovery with a strong vaccination rollout.
Yet there were multiple heated discussions about getting the vaccine. My body, my choice. mRNA was a new way to confront diseases which sceptics fought against. In this situation with no previous historical template to follow, many governmental authorities had no choice but to muddle their way through and experiment, rewriting the script as we move along.
The majority of the medical community concluded that the older generation is most at risk. Hence there was a concerted effort to vaccinate the seniors as fast as possible first. Evidence of Covid deaths pointed to the elderly and those with co-morbidities were most likely to succumb to the virus.
The other age groups had to wait for their turn in the face of initially limited vaccine supplies. Meanwhile, many also refused to follow the vaccine mandates. It was a shit show firestorm everywhere where battles were fought about self-right to refusal of the vaccine versus the overall good for society argument.
Then the rebellion started. Gen X, Y and Z started to question why they had to sacrifice their freedom for the baby boomers. Why would protecting the seniors mean that everyone has to be locked up at home for months? If the annual flu was already fatal with seniors with co-morbidities, isn’t it the same with Covid? Survival of the fittest was the rallying cry for thousands who started to protest in the streets, refusing to wear masks nor take the vaccine shots.
Thankfully, the vaccine started to work and like any virus, the mutations became less severe and mortality rates dropped. The virus-living organism aims to survive and killing the host was a bad long-term strategy. After Alpha, Beta and Delta, Omicron was a welcomed relief with its mild symptoms.
And then the world moved onto 2022 as we slowly open up and we arrived at the endemic stage. After 2+ years, everyone started emerging from our cocoon, shell-shocked that a pandemic had turned our lives upside down. Even spending a full day outdoors was a unique and uncomfortable experience by now. We had to relearn what was normal again.
Back to China now. Why were they still adopting a zero Covid strategy? Some conspiracy theory was that they were finalizing their biological warfare playbook for the next pandemic. Hence they were practising large city lockdowns for a final time.
The other theory floating around was that their homemade vaccines was not as effective as the mRNA ones from America. Their scientists had forecasted that if they open up, a million Chinese lives would be lost. With a population of 1.4 billion, that would account for less than 0.08%. Wouldn’t that mortality rate be about the same as the annual flu season?
With the heavily censored Great Wall of China internet, most citizens were unaware of what was happening outside its borders. Until the World Cup happened. Imagine seeing at least 3 matches every day being held in huge stadiums of more than 50,000 spectators who are maskless and shouting support for their favourite teams from various countries around the world.
WTF?!?!?! “Why are we still in lockdown mode?” flashed in the minds of its 1.4 billion citizens. This is crazy!!!! Enlightenment turns to anger quickly. The lockdown strategy does not seem logical anymore. Hence the start of street protests this week. Enough is enough.
China had also not done a good job of vaccinating its elderly population like the rest of the world. Only 60% had done so on a voluntary basis without any vaccine mandates other than movement restrictions. The 1 million projected deaths upon reopening likely consist of a majority of seniors with co-morbidity complications. Like the Western world before in 2021, China’s citizens are now questioning why the majority are been punished to protect the minority (elderly and seniors).
In a large country like China, the socialist regime is a huge ship that takes a long time to do a U-turn. It also takes a while from the top down to filter and change the signalling message in China’s bureaucracy red tape. But the authorities have heard from the people this week and they are a pissed-off bunch.
Steps have been taken within the past few days that indicate a reopening of China will happen sooner than later now. There is a change in the tone of senior officials with regard to softening the zero Covid policy. Positive Covid cases in some cities are now allowed to recover at home. A recent video of a man being forcefully evacuated from his home to the quarantine site – officials had to apologize for the action recently. Even Xi had acknowledged that the virus is milder now, according to a foreign diplomat who had a meeting with him overseas this week. Reports of a new government initiative to speed up the vaccination of seniors are underway. They expect to reach 90% of this high-risk group within a month’s time.
There is fear that China’s authorities have blinked and kowtowed to the people’s anger in the street protest and that it may happen again in the future. But I believe it is more about pragmatism and how to fine-tune the reopening schedule eventually.
China returning back to normal is actually a good thing for the world. It has become so big that its actions cannot be ignored anymore. Chinese tourists have been sorely missed everywhere. Supply chain bottlenecks would be unplugged. It will be more positive for the global economy going into 2023 the faster China returns to normal again. Fingers crossed!!
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