China is one of the oldest civilizations in the world, having a continuous recorded history of about 4,000 years. Other than the period of time when the Mongols took over China and started their global conquest, China had historically remained relatively peaceful and non-expansionist except for periodic short skirmishes with neighbouring countries like Vietnam, Korea and Japan.
A journalist who had worked in China for a number of years wrote a book about his experience and mentioned that China thinks in 100 years cycle. It believes that the country had reached rock bottom in 1940 and therefore its economy will peak in 2040. This could be why we frequently see many China statements stating 2040-2050 goals. We are less than 20 years from the Chinese belief that they would achieve peak influence and become a global superpower to reckon with soon.
China thinks in very long-term and strategic cycles. We will attempt to analyze its recent moves and the likely implications for the world in the near future in this article. They have been planting and formulating their overall plan and fine-tuning it even as America is constantly trying to box it into a corner to get Western support to slow down China’s development.
The speed at which China can move when it focuses its mind and energy on it has been proven again and again over the last 20 years. From buying bankrupt steel mills in the USA to disassembling them piece by piece. Then shipped them back home to reassemble the factory for local production in the early 2000s until it became a global steel exporter.
There are rumours that China was also helping Myanmar construct its new capital Naypyidaw which sprang out in the middle of nowhere in 2005. This was China’s first large-scale experiment to build a city from scratch. The experience helped it fine-tune and to perfect the infrastructure planning process to then build hundreds of new cities all over China.
The Chinese high-speed rail system started in 2008 and it now has the largest collection of bullet trains in the world with an impressive 40,000 km network within 15 years. In a span of 40 years, China has lifted almost 800 million of its citizens out of poverty through vast improvements in the standard of living with country-wide initiatives rolled out for the benefit of all.
My first visit to China was in 1990 to visit some relatives on the island of Hainan. By 2019 during my 4th visit, the place had been transformed with 2 high-speed rail lines running across the island. My 2018 study trip to Hangzhou also blew my mind with how advanced they have become with electronic money like Alipay and Wepay. The same goes for my business trips to Chengdu, Nanjing, Beijing and Shanghai over the years.
Naturally, its people have much to be proud of the accomplishments done in such a short time, within a generation. It is a rising star that is on track to become a global superpower. There is a hint of growing arrogance in their rhetoric at times but most of the Western world still does not want to acknowledge or respect its growing strengths and that frustrates China.
Instead, over the last few years, there is a blatant attempt to gang up against China to impede its rising status on the global stage rather than to come to the table to sort out the differences and disagreements. This has put China in a precarious position to defend and protect itself. Meanwhile, China’s politburo intellectuals began to plan for long-term strategic solutions. They are not swayed by short-term election cycles like the rest of the world. One perfect example is the “One Belt, One Road” initiative to win over the hearts of countries without colonization. There is no need to use a single bullet to flex their newfound economic might.
This leads us to the main topic of today – The Art of War China style and strategic moves ahead. There has been a number of brilliant China strategic developments in recent times that had been planned for a while and are only being executed now. These moves will lead to a new paradigm shift in the world economic balance. In Xi’s own words to Putin this week: There will be “Changes not seen in 100 years”.
After their victories in World War 2, the Americans have prided themselves as the protector of democracy. They frequently need to have the upper hand to ensure control. Since then, several needless and countless wars have been initiated and fought to help maintain military supremacy. Korea, Vietnam, Syria, Iran and Afghanistan to name a few.
Very often, sanctions work because America can hold a gun to the country’s head by denying access to the USD Swift system of payments, making it an instant international pariah. On top of that, the dollarization of its currency (eg. Oil Petrodollars and overseas Eurodollars) made it impossible for countries to escape the drug-like dependency on it. Many have to hoard USD for reserve requirements and to use their surpluses to buy even more US Treasury paper to fund the ever-growing US deficit black hole.
The systematic rise and blowing up of the American deficit with its endless money printing machine by the Fed in recent times had made many countries question why the rest of the world should continue to subsidize its excesses. Total US public debt has skyrocketed to more than $27 Trillion, almost doubling within a span of fewer than 10 years. The only available solution? To continue to raise the debt ceiling and hold the Senate/Congress to hostage situations via government shutdowns…
Another example of arrogance is the Ukraine war. The Western talking point that “you are either with us or you are against us” mentality has finally rubbed certain countries the wrong way. The BRICS countries are now pushing back. They are speaking out to chart their own paths and voice opposition to say that America does not hold a monopoly on the ideological truth it speaks of but has ulterior motives to support its military war machine. Fun fact: America has 750 overseas military bases in the world and quite a number surround China, which only has 5 globally.
America is also pushing China into the corner to halt its rise in many ways by targeting to slow down its economy. Attacks against TikTok and Huawei by a superpower against a single private company were previously unheard of before. They are becoming an American norm nowadays. It forced China during the pandemic to seriously consider if it should turn inwards into its own domestic economy to shield itself from the global economy as a way to reduce tension with America.
But the brand new grand China strategic plan has slowly been unveiled in recent months. It is the aim to de-dollarization the global economy. Leading the charge will be the RMB (Renminbi) aka CNY (Chinese Yuan). The actions and events speak for themselves.
China kick-started its CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) late last year in a number of provinces to introduce it to its citizens. It brokered a peace deal in the Middle East and aims to price oil in RMB soon. Xi’s recent meeting with Putin has resulted in a number of signed agreements which will further strengthen the use of RMB in global trade. There is a concerted move to get away from Petrodollars and the USD Swift system soon and many non-Western countries have agreed to follow suit.
In the next few weeks, China will likely begin to provide more details on the rollout plans to further internationalize the RMB. Many European and Asian countries are already paying tribute to China with visits to Beijing to hedge their bets as it reopens up post-pandemic. America is at its wit’s end and in a panic to try to further sabotage the plan. Destruction of the Nordstream pipeline to deny Europe of Russian oil and sending more troops to Taiwan to aggravate China further are some of the unintended consequences.
China’s rise to become a global superpower is inevitable. America has to contend that its number-one position for many years has now met a competitor that could dethrone it. Rather than fight it and put roadblocks in front, it should work with China for the good of the world to share the global stage and not just for its selfish interest alone. The move away from a US Dollar regime could be very bad for the US economy. Exciting times are ahead…
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