Everyone got this wrong. All the polls showed that Clinton will have at least a 90% probability of winning. Naturally, the market was upset and you could see equity markets going deep into the red as the final result was announced. Since then, markets have staged a recovery back to levels last seen on Monday.
Based on total votes counted, Clinton had 200k more votes than Trump. But in the swing states that mattered, the Republicans managed to edge out with a majority as slim as 2%. Even after all the sexist assault charges, 40% of women still voted for him. What was most surprising was that the Hispanic votes did not materialize for Clinton in Florida after Trump’s attacks on Mexico.
Seems like Trump will be more USA-centric and America First going forward. We in Asia will be at the losing end as a whole. China and Japan are already trying to rapidly extend their circle of influence not only for Asian countries but also towards the rest of the world. Russia is also not far behind as Trump’s USA is expected to pull back from its global responsibilities. It’s every country for itself now.
It will be a few more weeks of guessing before we get a clearer idea of where Trump’s strategy is heading since he was very vague on concrete plans during the campaign. On the other forceful ideas that he pushed for (Mexican wall, extreme vetting, 35% tax on companies moving production out of USA), I suspect that most of them will die a natural political death, either being too impractical to implement or that it may not have enough political willpower to continue. Given that he practically tore apart the GOP and that most of the Republican elites disowned him, it is difficult to figure out at this point if he will have the full support of his own party to rubber stamp all his initiatives in the Senate and House.
This current surreal feeling is reminding me of the new TV show “Designated Survivor” where Kiefer Sutherland accidentally became the president when a bomb destroyed everyone on Capitol Hill. Why do I feel that the show is to close for comfort in mimicking real life now???
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